Balance of Power… Till When?

Enab Baladi Issue # 116– Sun, May. 11, 2014

The armed conflict on Syrian ground has been in a state of inertia and balance of power for almost a year during which the involved parties have been taking turns in seizing control of the areas under conflict; whenever opposition fighters make progress in an area, they lose control of another at the hands of Assad forces or ISIS fighters.

The state quo can be attributed to the absence of qualitative weaponry adequate for tipping the balance on the ground.

The fact that the Syrian opposition receives American-made TOW anti-armor missiles cannot be denied; however, the missiles are not the solution as long as pro-regime states’ armouries are increasingly available to Al Assad.

Injecting more arms into Syria in order to maintain the balance of power in the area is presented through the recent attempts made by the Syrian National Coalition’s delegation to Washington to acquire weapons or through the SNC’s communications with Arab and western countries.

Clearly Russia did not await the outcome of the SNC’s efforts and put forward a schedule for delivering 36 Yak jet trainers to the Syrian government, nine of which are to be deliveredby the end of this year.

And between those missiles and these jets, the people in Syria, that turned into an arms bazaar, are paying the price; especially amid the absence of any sign of a peaceful resolution in the horizon. Meanwhile the extreme carelessness of the regime still attracts unplanned reactions by the opposition, such as last week’s blast in Carlton Citadel Hotel in Aleppo.

The longer this state of inertia persists, the longer the armed conflict will continue over the coming years, let alone the growing threat that the Syrian Revolution will divert its course, or even the apocalyptic scenario that the region may turn into long-term rival mini-states and cantons.